The likelihood of more intense and widespread attacks on Israel increases with each passing moment. This is because the governments of Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Syria. And Iraq are now dealing with issues of pride. And national image that go beyond typical political concerns. Tensions Rise Impact of Recent Middle East Assassinations.
Significant Assassinations and Their Implications TensionsÂ
The assassination of former Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and senior Hezbollah commander Sayyed Fouad Shukur in Beirut has severely undermined the sovereignty of Iran and Lebanon. Without a proportionate response, it is nearly impossible for both countries to restore their national image.
Delayed Immediate Response TensionsÂ
Despite these extraordinary events, it was clear that immediate retaliation against Israel would not occur. The primary reason was the necessity of holding a full honor funeral for the former Palestinian Prime Minister in Tehran, followed by his burial in Doha. Additionally, Fouad Shukur’s burial in Beirut required the participation of thousands of people.
Strategic Considerations
Another reason for the delayed response is that Iran, Lebanon, and Syria wish to give the United Nations and Europe an opportunity to raise a strong voice against Israel. They are also gauging the extent of support they will receive from Muslim countries, as this situation presents a far greater and more challenging test than previous conflicts.
Potential for Regional War
This delicate moment has the potential to engulf several Middle Eastern countries in war or chaos. Should the conflict spread, it will also impact Russia and China. Russia is already entangled in the war in Ukraine, while China faces significant economic sanctions.
Preparedness for Open War
A crucial question is whether Iran and Lebanon are prepared for open war, given the destruction Israel has inflicted on Gaza in response to Palestinian attacks on October 7. An open conflict would not be limited to Israel but would also involve NATO countries.
The Nature of Iran’s Response
It is obvious that this time, Iran will now not have difficulty with a symbolic reaction because it did whilst Iranian commander General Qassem Soleimani was killed at Baghdad International Airport in January 2020, which Iran retaliated by way of attacking a U.S. Airbase in Iraq.
